Age Structure in Kenya: Number of People by Age and Sex

Age structure is the distribution of people across various age categories. It is visualized using an age pyramid, whereby males and females of specific age groups are plotted side by side. 

According to the Kenya Population and Housing Census 2019, the total population of Kenya was 47,564,296, consisting of 23,548,056 males, 24,014,716 females, and 1,524 intersex persons.^[1]

Age structure breaks down the total number of males and females by age group, which helps us understand vital population dynamics such as birth rates, death rates, and dependency ratios. It also informs the level of resource investments our nation makes in education and health.

The chart below shows Kenya’s population pyramid, from which we can derive several insights about Kenya’s demographics. 

The Kenyan population is young.

One lesson from the pyramid above is that Kenya is very young. The pyramid's base is broader than the top, meaning we have fewer old people than children. The largest age group for both sexes is 10 – 14, with 3.2 million males and 3.1 million females.

The second largest age group was age 5 – 9, with 3.1 million males and 3.09 females.

Kenya's median age of 19.5 in 2023 captures the extent of its youthful population. Compare this with a country like the United States, where the median age is 38, or Japan, where it is 49.^[2]

Kenya has a high child dependency ratio.

The child dependency ratio tells us the number of children aged 0 – 14 in a population relative to the working-age population. It highlights the burden that children impose on the working population.

In 2019, children under the age of 15 comprised 39% of the population in Kenya, and the child dependency ratio was 68.3%. This means that for every 100 working-age adults, the country has 68 children.

The child dependency ratio was higher in rural areas than in urban areas. In rural areas, it was 77.9%, while in urban areas, it was 50.8%. Working-age adults in rural areas had more child dependents than in urban areas.^[3]

The child dependency ratio has massive implications for education and health. For education, it highlights the number of investments that need to be made in basic education, including school infrastructure, the number of teachers, school feeding programs, and more.

Kenya has a low elderly population.

The number of people aged 60 years and above in 2019 was 2,740,515, or 5% of the population. Most recent estimates from the UN Population Prospects showed that Kenya had 1,609,222 people aged 65 years and above in 2023.

A lower elderly population means a lower old-age dependency ratio. In 2019, Kenya had an old-age dependency ratio of 7%, meaning for every seven elderly people aged 65 and above, we had 100 working-age persons aged 15 – 64.

In 2023, the UN Population Prospects report that we had an old-age dependency ratio of 4.9%.^[4] 

Contrast this with Japan, whereby for every 100 working-age individuals aged 15 – 64, there were 50 elderly people above the age of 64.

More boys are born in Kenya, but more girls live to adulthood

Looking at the population pyramid above, we notice that Kenya has more males aged 0 – 19 than females in that age group. This can be attributed to the sex ratio at birth, whereby more male children are born annually than female children.

The 2019 census reported a sex ratio at birth of 104 males for every 100 females, with variances between counties.^[5] The UN Population Prospects, on the other hand, reported a sex ratio at birth of 102.2 in Kenya.^[6]

However, due to higher mortality among males than females, fewer men survive to adulthood, and even fewer live to old age.^[7] This dynamic is observed in the sex difference in life expectancies and the age-specific mortality rates.^[8]

In 2023, the life expectancy at birth among men in Kenya was lower at 61.5 years, while in women, it was 65.9 years. The same is true even in old age. In 2023, Kenya had a life expectancy at age 65 of 14 years, with women expected to live for an additional 15 years compared to men at 12.9 years.^[9]

How has Kenya’s age structure changed over the years?

The chart below clearly shows how the age structure in Kenya has transformed from 1950 to 2023.

Kenya's population grew tremendously from slightly over 5 million people in 1950 to more than 55 million in 2023. Kenya's population is projected to continue rising before peaking by the end of this century. 

Other noticeable insights include:

1. The number of elderly people 65 years and older has been increasing, especially in the last decade and a half. This suggests an increasing life expectancy as more people live to older ages.
2. Children aged 0 – 4 increased steadily from 1950 to 2010. After 2010, we saw a leveling off, suggesting fertility and birth rates may be declining.
3. We see a similar pattern among children aged 5 – 14. The growth rate of this age group has slowed in the last decade and a half.
4. The number of individuals aged 15 – 24 rose sharply after 1980, as large cohorts of children born at earlier ages entered adolescence and early adulthood. 
5. The working-age population aged 25 – 64 has grown tremendously in the last three decades, suggesting that more people are joining the labor force, which has massive implications for the nation's economic well-being.

Urban areas in Kenya have more youth and fewer children

The population distribution in urban areas differs from that of the general population, with youths comprising the largest population share. The pyramid below bulges at the center between ages 20 and 34, suggesting more youths.

This effect could be attributed to higher in-migration into urban areas as people seek opportunities for jobs and education.^[10] Urban areas also have fewer children due to lower fertility and birth rates.^[11] A smaller number of children between the ages of 5 and 19 may also suggest increasing mortality.

Another striking observation is that there are more men aged 35 – 59 in urban areas than women. On the other hand, women comprise most children, youth, and the elderly.

Overall, in 2019, Kenya had 14,831,354 people in urban areas, consisting of 7,352,137 males, 7,478,880 females, and 683 intersex persons. 65% of the urban population was between the ages of 15 and 64.

The elderly over 65 accounted for 1.9% of the population, while children aged 0 – 14 accounted for 33.1%. The youth aged 15 – 24 comprised 21.1% of the urban population.

Rural areas in Kenya have more children than adults

Unlike urban areas, rural areas in Kenya have more children due to higher fertility and birth rates. In 2019, Kenya had 32,732,596 people in rural areas, or 68.8% of the population.

The rural population comprised 16,535,687 females, 16,195,729 males, and 839 intersex persons.

Children aged 0 – 14 comprised 41.7% of the population, while those aged 65 years and above were 4.9%. The working-age population aged 15 – 64 comprised 53.5% of the rural population. The share of the youth aged 15 – 24 in rural areas was 20.2%.

See Also

1. The Population of Kenya 2024
2. Kenya UN Populations Prospects 2024 – 2100
3. Life Expectancy in Kenya by Sex and County
4. Total Fertility Rate in Kenya by County
5. Crude Birth Rate in Kenya by County
6. The Population of Kenya 2019
7. Number of deaths in Kenya per year

References