The United Nation’s 2024 medium projection scenario estimates that Kenya’s population will peak at 104.23 million in 2098. This is lower than the 2022 UN revision that projected a population of 112.53 million by 2100.[1]
The downward revision follows a similar trend worldwide, with the UN projecting that the world population will peak at 10.3 billion people in 2084. Initial estimates in 2022 showed the world population peaking in 2086 with a population of 10.4 billion.[2]
The chart below shows Kenya's estimated population based on the UN’s high, medium, and low projection scenarios. The high scenario projects the population of Kenya reaching 151.65 million people in 2100.
The medium scenario, on the other hand, projects a more conservative estimate of 104.2 million people, with the population peaking in 2098. The low scenario suggests a much earlier peak of 2068 and a total population of 68.76 million people in 2100.
Kenya’s fertility rates
The total fertility rate is the number of children that would be born to a woman if she were to live long enough to reach her menopause. It helps determine the population growth trajectories of countries and regions. According to census reports, Kenya’s total fertility rate in 2019 was 3.4 live births per woman, down 28.6% from 4.8 births per woman in 2009.[3]
Current UN projections show that Kenya’s fertility rate in 2024 was 3.2 births per woman. It is expected to decrease further and fall below three births per woman in 2028 when it will be 2.9 births per woman. In 2075, Kenya’s fertility rates will fall below two children per woman.
The chart below shows the trend in fertility rates from 1950 to 2100.
UN prospects for Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda
Uganda’s population is projected to overtake Kenya from 2040 and will peak much later, reaching 120.8 million people in 2100. In contrast, Tanzania’s population is projected to increase more rapidly, outpacing its neighbors. In 2100, Tanzania is projected to have a population of 261.7 million. Rwanda’s population of 14.1 million in 2024 is projected to reach 32.7 million in 2100.
The chart below shows the medium projection scenarios for Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda.
Fertility rates for Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda
As is the case with Kenya, the total fertility rates of the three East African countries will decline steadily from 2024 onwards. These declines will drive the slow population growth rates that the region will experience.
However, declining fertility rates in Africa is not a new phenomenon. Historical data show that fertility rates declined much more rapidly in the past. From the chart below, Kenya hit its highest fertility rate of 7.96 births per woman in 1966, the second highest among the four countries. Fertility rates have since plummeted, and Kenya is projected to have the lowest fertility rates in the region by 2100.
Rwanda, which had the highest fertility in 1959, has a fertility rate of 3.6 births per woman in 2024. This rate is expected to decline further to a low of 1.8 births per woman in 2100.
Uganda’s fertility rate dropped drastically in the early 2000s, reaching 4.1 births per woman in 2024. It is expected to decline further to 1.89 births per woman in 2100.
The steadier decline of its fertility rate will enable Tanzania's sustained population growth. Currently, Tanzania's total fertility rate is 4.54 births per woman, down from a high of 7.12 births per woman in 1974. Tanzania’s medium projection scenario shows that its fertility rate will reach 2.26 births per woman in 2100, the highest in the region.
See Also.
- Kenya Population 2024
- Total Fertility Rates in Kenya by County
- Crude Birth Rates in Kenya by County
- Marriage rates in Kenya
- Polygamy in Kenya by County
References
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2024). World Population Prospects 2024, Online Edition
- Hannah Ritchie and Lucas Rodés-Guirao (2024) - “Peak global population and other key findings from the 2024 UN World Population Prospects” Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/un-population-2024-revision' [Online Resource]
- KNBS. (2022). 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census: Analytical report on fertility and nuptiality (Vol. VI, pp. 14-19).
