Even though the extent of child marriages has reduced over the years, UNICEF estimates that approximately 650 million women today were married before they turned eighteen.[1]
In Kenya, 4.1% of females and 3.9% of males aged 12 – 15 were married in 2019. Extending the age group to include 12 – 18-year-old girls reveals that 6.1% were married at the time of the census.
Child marriages are associated with higher fertility rates
The total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman will likely get by the end of her childbearing years.[2] It is arrived at by summing the age-specific fertility rates of all age groups in a population and multiplying the result by the width of the age groups.[3]
Early marriages tend to lower the median age at first sexual intercourse as well as the median age at first birth. As a result, child marriages increase the rate of teenage pregnancies and the total fertility rate of a population.[4]
The chart below depicts the relationship between the girl child marriage rate of females aged 12 -18 in each county in Kenya and the age-specific fertility rate of girls aged 15 – 19. The correlation is positive and significant (r = 0.806, p<0.000000), suggesting that an increase in child marriage rates was associated with a strong positive increase in the fertility rates of the females in that age group.
Each dot on the chart represents a Kenyan county. In 2019, Mandera County had the highest child marriage rate of 13.6% and, consequently, the highest age-specific fertility rate of 0.16 births per 1,000 women.
In contrast, Nairobi and Kiambu had child marriage rates of 3.2% and 3.3%, respectively, and each had an age-specific fertility rate of 0.03 births per 1,000 women.[5]
A limitation of the data is that age groups do not overlap. While we have the marriage rates of girls aged 12 – 18, the age-specific fertility rates used in this analysis are for girls aged 15 – 19. However, this limitation is unlikely to significantly affect the overall direction and strength of the relationship.
See Also
- Child marriages in Kenya by county
- Crude birth rates in Kenya by county
- Marriage rates in Kenya by county
- Child marriages and teenage pregnancies in Kenya
References
[1] UNICEF (2022). Child marriages. Accessed https://data.unicef.org/topic/gender/child-marriage/
[2] Max Roser (2014) - “Fertility Rate” Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate' [Online Resource]
[3] USAID. Age-specific fertility rates. Accessed https://www.data4impactproject.org/prh/family-planning/fertility/age-specific-fertility-rates/
[4] Onagoruwa, A., & Wodon, Q. (2018). Measuring the impact of child marriage on total fertility: A study for fifteen countries. Journal of Biosocial Science, 50(5), 626-639.
[5] KNBS (2022). 2019 Kenya Population and Housing Census: Analytical report on fertility and nuptiality. Vol. VI
