Number of Deaths in Kenya per Year - Stats Kenya

Every year, people die in Kenya from a wide variety of causes, including disease, accidents, homicides, suicide, and other natural causes. These deaths are recorded and can be used to inform health and social policy. 

Additionally, knowing the number of deaths allows demographers to compute the population's life expectancy and other trends in human well-being.

How many people die in Kenya annually?

The total number of deaths reported in Kenya by the UN World Population Prospects in 2023 was 399,024.^[1]

The number of male deaths was 213,880, while that of females was 185,145.

The number of male deaths in Kenya has consistently exceeded that of females, except for a brief period around the year 2000 when the number of male and female deaths almost reached parity.

The period between 1990 and 2000 coincides with the HIV/AIDS epidemic that increased the number of deaths in Kenya tremendously before the introduction of Antiretroviral Therapies at the start of the century.

In our article on life expectancy in Kenya, we note that the sex gap in life expectancy dropped from 3.4 years in 1990 to just 1.4 years in 2000, suggesting that even though women tend to live longer than men, the HIV epidemic increased the female mortality considerably, bringing the number of female deaths closer to that of males.

The chart below shows the sex gap in life expectancy in Kenya from 1950 to 2023. The shaded region highlights the HIV epidemic and its impact on life expectancy during the period.

Estimated deaths versus registered deaths in Kenya

Knowing the exact number of deaths in Kenya is difficult due to the technicalities of accounting for and keeping vital records.

One difficulty arises from the fact that most deaths in Kenya occur in the community rather than in hospitals, meaning a significant number of deaths have missing details. Another difficulty is that many deaths in Kenya are not reported to the authorities after they occur.

Registered deaths by the civil registration services in Kenya  

In 2023, the Kenya Economic Survey found that the number of deaths in Kenya occurring in a health facility was 112,851 or 54.9% of the deaths. On the contrary, 45.1% or 92,880 deaths occurred in the community.^[2]

Another problem with accounting for deaths in Kenya is that many deaths that occur are never reported to the authorities. Data from the census 2019, for instance, shows that among children under the age of five years, male deaths were 25% more likely to be notified to authorities than female deaths.^[3]

In counties like Lamu, Garissa, Bomet, Murang’a, West Pokot, and Narok, male deaths were twice as likely to be reported than female deaths. Failure to notify authorities of the occurrence of death means that very many deaths in Kenya may go unaccounted for and may not be recorded in vital registries.

Overall, only 65.9% of deaths in Kenya were registered in 2019.^[4] In 2023, the Kenya Economic Survey reported a completeness of death registration of 45.2%.

Death estimates from other sources

Due to the above reasons, we have to rely on recorded deaths and estimates to understand the full scope of mortality in Kenya. In addition to the UN, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and WHO Global Health Estimates (GHE) data are particularly insightful. 

In 2021, IMHE estimated the total number of deaths in Kenya to be 357,018.^[5] On the other hand, the WHO GHE estimated 305,953 deaths in the same year.^[6]

How do births and deaths in Kenya compare?

The chart below shows how births and deaths in Kenya compare. The UN World Population Prospects estimated that Kenya had 1,499,998 births in 2023 and 399,024 deaths.

As with deaths, the number of births in the country is part of the vital statistics monitored by Civil Registration Services. However, unlike deaths, most births in Kenya occur in health facilities.

In 2023, the Kenya Economic Survey reported that 98.6% of births in Kenya occurred in a health facility, while 1.4% occurred in the community.

However, the total number of births registered was lower than the estimated number of births reported by the UN.

In 2023, the Civil Registration Services in Kenya registered 1,192,884 births, 608,471 males and 584,242 females. The sex ratio at birth in 2023 was 104 males for 100 females.^[7]

Future trends in births and deaths in Kenya

The chart below shows future trends in births and deaths based on the UN's medium scenario. Following the slight decline in births between 2010 and 2020, births will continue to increase until 2036, reaching 1,665,419. They will then start dropping, reaching 1,280,613 in 2100.

On the contrary, deaths in Kenya will continue rising from 399,024 in 2023 to 1,223,420 in 2021. The convergence in births and deaths at the end of the century can be explained by Kenya's population growth, expected to reach 104.23 million people in 2100.

Kenya's fertility rate, on the other hand, will continue to decline, falling below two births per woman in 2075. As a result, we expect that birth rates will fall, leading to fewer births in the country. 

Fewer people die in Kenya today than in the past.

We know this by looking at the Crude Death Rate, which measures the mortality rate from all causes of death in the population. It is calculated by dividing the total deaths by the mid-interval population per 1000 people.^{[8] [9]}

The chart below shows trends in the Crude Death Rate in Kenya from 1950 to 2023. It declined from 30.5 deaths per 1,000 population in 1950 to 7.2 deaths per 1,000 in 2023.

See Also

1. Number of children per woman – Fertility rates by county
2. Life Expectancy in Kenya by County
3. Age structure in Kenya: Number of people by age and sex
4. Population of Kenya 2024 – 2100: UN population prospects
5. Crude Birth Rate in Kenya by County

References