How Often Members of Parliament and Politicians are Reelected in Kenya

Have you ever wondered how often the political leadership of Kenya changes? Are Kenyans more likely to elect new leaders or retain existing ones? 

Stats Kenya developed a County Reelection Index (CRI) that answers these specific questions. It tells us which counties re-elect members of parliament more often and which ones change politicians more frequently.

The CRI Methodology

The CRI is intuitive and takes into account three key pieces of information.

First, it looks at the total number of terms an MP could serve from 1988 to date. For most constituencies, this amounts to 8 terms (1988, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2013, 2017, 2022). Note that some constituencies were formed more recently and have fewer total terms.^[1]  

Second, we count the number of terms an individual served multiple terms. For example, in Othaya Constituency, Nyeri County, Mwai Kibaki served as MP from 1988 until 2007, serving five out of eight terms.

Finally, we look at the number of MPs who have served multiple terms in that period.

This is important because even though Mwai Kibaki served five terms from 1988, he is the only one to have ever been re-elected in Othaya.

In a constituency like Sirisia in Bungoma County, 7 out of the 8 terms were served by re-elected individuals.

However, three individuals served seven re-election terms (John Barasa Munyasia for two terms, Moses Wetangula for two terms, and John Waluke for three terms). 

We standardize these variables to get our County Reelection Index, which ranges from 0 to 1.^[2][3] A value closer to one suggests that the constituency re-elects members of parliament at a high rate. A value of zero means that the specific constituency has never re-elected an MP.^[4]

Quick Facts

1. West Pokot had the highest County Reelection Index of 0.573.
2. Narok had the second-highest County Reelection Index of 0.535.
3. Mandera had the lowest County Reelection Index of 0.146.
4. Kericho had the second-lowest County Reelection Index of 0.188.
5. Western Province had the highest Reelection Index of 0.389.
6. Central Province had the lowest Reelection Index of 0.256.

Only nine counties have never re-elected a governor

Even though Kenyan governors can only serve for two terms, only nine counties have never re-elected a governor for a second term. 

They include Taita Taveta, Isiolo, Meru, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kiambu, Nakuru, Bomet, and Nairobi.

All the remaining counties have had a governor who served two full terms.

More counties have never re-elected a Senator.

Senators in Kenya can serve for more than two terms. However, unlike the governor's position, in which members are more likely to be re-elected, fewer senators enjoy this privilege.

As of the 2022 election, 21 counties had never re-elected a senator.

These include: Tana River, Lamu, Mandera, Embu, Machakos, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Murang’a, Turkana, West Pokot, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, Kajiado, Bomet, Kisumu, Migori, Wajir, Makueni, Kisii, and Nairobi. 

All the other counties have senators who served more than a single term.

County Re-election Index: Which counties reelect MPs at a higher rate?

As stated in the methodology section, the County Reelection Index is the average of the CRIs of all constituencies in that county.

The counties with the highest CRIs were West Pokot and Narok, each with an index of 0.573 and 0.535, respectively. In these counties, fewer MPs have been reelected for a larger number of terms than those from other counties.

Counties with the lowest CRI were Mandera at 0.146 and Kericho at 0.188.

The chart above also shows that some regions tended to re-elect members of parliament at a much higher rate than others.

For instance, the North and Northwestern parts of the country, including Marsabit, Samburu, Turkana, and West Pokot, reelect MPs at very high rates.

On the contrary, Central Kenya, comprising Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Murang'a, and Nyandarua, had very low CRIs, meaning they do not re-elect MPs very often.

The chart below shows the reelection index for each province. Western had the highest re-election index of 0.389, followed by Rift Valley at 0.373.^[5]

Central Kenya and North Eastern Province had the lowest reelection rates of 0.256 and 0.257, respectively.

County Re-election Index Full List

Below is a full list of the county reelection index from the highest to the lowest.

1. West Pokot   0.573
2. Narok 0.535
3. Kajiado         0.458
4. Turkana        0.451
5. Samburu       0.444
6. Kisumu         0.440
7. Vihiga 0.431
8. Tharaka-Nithi 0.431
9. Baringo         0.424
10. Busia  0.417
11. Machakos     0.417
12. Trans Nzoia  0.408
13. Marsabit       0.406
14. Mombasa     0.396
15. Migori 0.396
16. Siaya  0.396
17. Bungoma      0.384
18. Kitui    0.380
19. Isiolo  0.375
20. Lamu  0.375
21. Taita Taveta  0.375
22. Elgeyo-Marakwet    0.365
23. Garissa         0.361
24. Kakamega    0.360
25. Homa Bay     0.359
26. Bomet 0.358
27. Meru  0.355
28. Nairobi          0.338
29. Kisii    0.337
30. Kwale 0.333
31. Nakuru         0.330
32. Tana River    0.319
33. Kirinyaga      0.292
34. Makueni        0.292
35. Nyandarua    0.292
36. Laikipia         0.278
37. Murang'a      0.274
38. Uasin Gishu  0.271
39. Wajir   0.264
40. Nandi  0.250
41. Kiambu         0.243
42. Embu 0.240
43. Nyamira        0.240
44. Kilifi    0.231
45. Nyeri  0.208
46. Kericho         0.188
47. Mandera       0.146

See Also

1. Access to Basic Infrastructure in Kenya by County – Basic Access Index
2. The Most Corrupt Counties in Kenya – Corruption Perception Index
3. Kenya Human Development Index by County

Endnotes