Kenya Adult Mortality Rate in Males and Females by County

The adult mortality rate is the probability of a 15-year-old dying before reaching age 60 if he or she is subject to the current age-specific mortality rate between those ages.^[1]

Ideally, if you are a 15-year-old person today, the adult mortality rate tells us your chances of celebrating your 60^th birthday.

Quick Facts

1. The adult mortality rate among Males in Kenya was 419.4 deaths per 1,000 males in 2021.
2. The adult mortality rate among Kenyan females was 310.9 deaths per 1,000 females in 2021.
3. In males, Homa Bay County had the highest adult mortality of 492 deaths per 1000 in 2019.
4. In females, Tana River County had the highest adult mortality rate of 377 deaths per 1000 in 2019.

Males in Kenya have a higher adult mortality rate than females

In 2021, the World Bank recorded an adult mortality among Kenyan males of 419.4 deaths per 1,000. This means that out of every 1000 men who were alive at the age of 15 in that year, 419 will die before they reach age 60.^[2]

Kenyan females had a lower adult mortality rate of 310.9 deaths per 1,000, suggesting that out of every 1000 females aged 15 in 2021, around 311 would die before reaching their 60^th birthday.

The difference in mortality rate between males and females can be attributed to the higher number of deaths among males across the lifespan, with the number of deaths diverging significantly from age 15 onwards, as seen in the chart below.

For instance, the Kenya Economic Survey reported that males aged 15-24 accounted for 61.3% of the total deaths in 2023. Between 25 – 34, males accounted for 62.9% of the deaths, and between 35 – 44, the share of male deaths was 62.1%.^[3]

More male children are born, but fewer reach adulthood

The higher adult mortality among males can also be demonstrated by looking at sex ratios between childhood and adulthood. At birth, more male children are born than females. However, by adulthood, the population sex ratio tilts towards more females than males.

The UN World Population Prospects, for instance, estimated the sex ratio at birth for Kenya to be 102 males for 100 females in 2023. In the same year, the population sex ratio was 98.9 males per 100 females.^[4][5]

The country goes from having more males at birth than females to the reverse. This result can be attributed to higher mortality in males than females across the lifespan, meaning from birth onwards, more males than females die, as demonstrated by the chart above.

How has the adult mortality rate in Kenya changed throughout the years?

The trend in adult mortality rate among males and females in Kenya provides essential perspectives on the nature of deaths in Kenya.

The chart below shows the adult mortality rate in males and females from 1950 to 2021.

Key highlights from the chart above include:

1. Adult mortality rates in males and females have declined in the last two decades. In females, the rate fell from 422.8 deaths in 2001 to 310.9 in 2021. Ideally, 112 more women will survive to age 60 today than they did in 2001.
2. The decline in mortality in males in the last two decades has been slower. In 2001, the adult mortality rate in males was 456.3 deaths per 1000, which dropped to 419.4 deaths per 1000 in 2021. Unlike in females, the decline was slower, with only 37 additional men expected to reach age 60. 
3. Males in Kenya today have a higher probability of death than in 1960. In 1960, the adult mortality rate in males was 391.7 deaths per 1000 compared to 2021, whereby the mortality rate was 419.4 deaths per 1,000. 
4. On the contrary, females in Kenya have a lower probability of death today than in 1960. In 1960, the adult mortality rate in Kenyan females was 332.7 deaths per 1000, which dropped to 310.9 deaths in 2021.
5. The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Kenya led to the highest increase in the adult mortality rate. From the chart above, the adult mortality rate was highest between 1987 and 2001, a period coinciding with the AIDS epidemic.^[6]

The adult mortality rate in 2001 before the introduction of Antiretroviral therapy was 422.8 deaths per 1000 in females and 456.3 deaths per 1000 in males. Initially, the adult mortality rate had reached its lowest levels in 1981, whereby females had an adult mortality rate of 194.1 deaths per 1000 and males 265.6 deaths per 1000.

How does Kenya’s adult mortality rate compare with other countries?

Adult mortality rates are higher in Africa than in the rest of the world. The map below shows female adult mortality worldwide based on data from the UN World Population Prospects.^[7]

Kenya's adult mortality rate in females of 301.5 deaths per 1000 in 2022 was higher than Tanzania's 185.3 deaths per 1000 and Uganda's 233.9 deaths per 1000.

Other countries are:

1. Rwanda 183.7
2. Ethiopia 170.6
3. DRC 250
4. Somalia 288.4

The same trend is observed in males, whereby men have a higher adult mortality rate in Africa than in the rest of the world. Similarly, the adult mortality rate among males in Kenya is higher than in neighboring countries.

The map below shows the adult mortality rate in males across the world.

The adult mortality rate among men in Kenya was 407.9 deaths per 1000 in 2022, which was higher than in Tanzania, where males have an adult mortality rate of 245.9 deaths per 1000.

Male adult mortality rates in other neighboring countries include:

1. Uganda 325.7
2. Rwanda 263.4
3. Ethiopia 268.2
4. Somalia 372.9
5. DRC 328.1

The Adult Mortality Rate in Kenya varies by area of residence and county

According to the 2019 census, the adult mortality rate among males in Kenya was 340.7 deaths per 1000, with rural areas having a higher adult mortality rate than urban areas.^[8]

In urban areas, the male adult mortality rate in 2019 was 288.5 deaths per 1000, while in rural areas, it was 356.4.

On the other hand, the adult mortality rate among females in 2019 was 211.7 deaths per 1000, with rural areas having a mortality rate of 233.1 deaths per 1000 and urban regions 178.3 deaths per 1000.^[9]

Counties that had the highest adult mortality among males in 2019 were: Homa Bay, at 492 deaths per 1000, Siaya 464, Nyamira 461, Kisumu 459, Migori 458, Kitui 453, Kisii 453, Machakos 429, Kajiado 428, Nyandarua 420, Makueni 418, Kericho 414, Elgeyo Marakwet 412, Turkana 410, Murang'a 409, Tana River 407, Kwale 400, Wajir 400, Bomet 400, West Pokot 399, Samburu 388, and Kilifi 397.

Counties with the lowest adult mortality among males in 2019 were: Mombasa at 212 deaths per 1000, Lamu at 214, Bungoma at 219, Nyeri at 224, Baringo at 227, Trans Nzoia at 241, Kakamega at 243, Busia at 257, Nairobi 266, Uasin Gishu 274, Meru 278, Tharaka Nithi 290, Vihiga 314, Isiolo 320, Taita Taveta 322, Nandi 352, Kiambu 356, Kirinyaga 365, Embu 381, Garissa 393, Narok 395, Mandera 396, Nakuru 397, Laikipia 397, and Marsabit 397.

Among females, the adult mortality rate in 2019 was highest in Tana River at 377 deaths per 1000, Kilifi 373, Isiolo 357, Mandera 353, Kwale 352, Garissa 348, West Pokot 346, Narok 335, Wajir 331, Turkana 330, Makueni 327, Elgeyo Marakwet 325, Kericho 319, Nyandarua 314, Marsabit 312, Kajiado 310, Bomet 307, Machakos 302, Siaya 293, Murang’a 289, Homa Bay 284, Kisumu 263, and Migori 257.

Counties with the lowest female adult mortality in 2019 were: Nyeri 77 deaths per 1000, Mombasa 139, Uasin Gishu 140, Kirinyaga 146, Laikipia 152, Nandi 155, Embu 162, Nakuru 163, Lamu 171, Tharaka Nithi 175, Taita Taveta 179, Meru 181, Bungoma 185, Trans Nzoia 185, Baringo 188, Kitui 190, Busia 199, Kakamega 209, Samburu 209, Kisii 221, Nairobi 230, Nyamira 230, Kiambu 232, and Vihiga 255.

See Also

1. Number of deaths in Kenya per year
2. Kenya life expectancy in Kenya by county
3. Number of children per woman. Fertility rates by county

References