Kenya: Life Expectancy at Birth by County and Gender

Life expectancy is the number of years a person is expected to live. As a statistical estimate, it tells us the average age people born in a particular period will be when they die, assuming the mortality patterns during their birth remain the same.^[1]

However, life expectancy differs by country from as high as 85.9 years in Monaco to as low as 52.7 years in Nigeria.^[2]

In Kenya, the UN World Population Prospects indicates that in 2023, the life expectancy at birth was 63.6 years. The life expectancy for men was 61.5 years, and for women, it was 65.9 years.[3]

Even though these life expectancies are lower than those in developed countries, we cannot ignore the progress we are making. This graphic from Our World in Data shows that Kenya's life expectancy was 42 years in 1950 and rose to 67 years by 2015. In the same period, the life expectancy in the United States rose from 68 years in 1950 to 79 years in 2015.^[4]

Kenya's life expectancy has been rising despite numerous challenges along the way.

According to UN estimates, Kenya's life expectancy for both sexes was 36.9 years in 1950 and rose to a high of 62.6 years in 1987. As highlighted in the chart below, it collapsed between 1988 and 2000 before rising again at the start of the century.^[5]

The shaded region coincides with the HIV/AIDS epidemic that severely increased mortality rates in Kenya and other parts of Africa. Starting in the early 2000s, access to antiretroviral therapies (ARTs) increased, and the number of deaths observed from HIV began to decline.^[6]

The relationship between HIV and life expectancy in Kenya can be aptly demonstrated by the chart below, showing the number of HIV deaths and antiretroviral therapy coverage at the start of the century. 

Starting in 2000, one thing we notice is that the number of deaths from HIV in Kenya had been increasing throughout the 90s and peaked in 2004. During this period, we saw a massive fall in life expectancies.

Antiretroviral therapies were introduced in Kenya in the early 2000s, and access started in 2003, as shown in the chart above. As ART coverage increased, deaths from HIV declined. Life expectancies started increasing once again around this period and momentarily fell in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The fall of life expectancies in 2020 further shows how mortalities impact life expectancies. According to the World Health Organization, the COVID-19 pandemic erased close to a decade of gains in life expectancies. Global life expectancy dropped from 73.1 years in 2019 to 72.5 years in 2020.^[7]

Women in Kenya live longer than men.

Women in most countries in the world live longer than men, as seen in their life expectancies and age-sex structures. There are several reasons why this may be the case: 

Men have a higher death rate in infancy and youth than women^[8] – The chart below shows the annual share of deaths between men and women by age group in Kenya. We see that in every age group since birth, men die at higher numbers than women. 

At birth, 50.6% of the deaths were male and 49.4% were female. This gap continues to increase in youth, peaking between ages 25 and 34 when the share of male deaths is the highest at 62.9% and female deaths at 37.1%.^[9]

We attribute higher death rates among young men to the higher frequency of accidents, violence, and successful suicides compared to women.^[10] In terms of violence, data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crimes showed that 1,918 men in Kenya were homicide victims in 2022 compared to 725 women. Ideally, the number of male homicide victims was 2.6 times that of women.^[11]

Higher death rates in men continue throughout the lifespan due to the higher prevalence of chronic conditions in men than women and due to behavioural differences, such as smoking, drug use, and alcohol consumption.^[12] 

Men in Kenya also die at higher rates from suicides than women. According to data from the World Health Organization, the male-to-female ratio of suicide rate was 3.1 in 2021, meaning that for every female suicide, there were three male suicides.^[13]

The sex gap in life expectancy between men and women in Kenya is widening

The sex gap is the difference between the life expectancy of females and males. In Kenya, the sex gap was 4.5 years in 2023, meaning women are expected to live on average 4.5 years more than men. ^[14] The sudden drop from a high of 5.1 years in 2020 could be attributed to COVID–19.

Looking at the chart above, we also notice that the sex gap in life expectancy was lowest at the height of the AIDS epidemic, with women living on average 1.4 years more than men, down from 4 years in 1989.

The toll on women was due to the higher prevalence of HIV among women than men and subsequent higher death rates. From the chart below, we see that in 2008, the ratio of female to male HIV deaths was 1.76.^[15]

However, the ratio reached parity between 2012 and 2013, and today, more men die from HIV than women. During this period, we also see the sex gap in life expectancy between females and males in Kenya widen, going above four years.

The UN projects Kenya’s life expectancy to reach 74.4 years in 2100

The UN’s world population prospects include life expectancy projections for all the countries in the world. Based on their estimates, Kenya’s life expectancy for both sexes will reach 67.9 years in 2050 and 74.4 years in 2100.

The male life expectancy will rise to 65.3 years in 2050 and 71.6 years in 2100. On the other hand, the female life expectancy will reach 70.5 years in 2050 and 77.1 years in 2100.

The sex gap in life expectancy will also continue to widen in favour of women. It will rise from 4.5 years in 2024 to 5.5 years in 2100.

Life expectancy in Kenya varies by county and region

As seen in the sections above, women tend to live longer than men. This trend continues from the national level and down to the county level. According to the 2019 census, women in Kenya had a life expectancy at birth of 66.5 years, while men had a life expectancy of 60.6 years.^[16]

In Nyeri County, Men and women had the country's highest life expectancy, with women expected to live 75.8 years and men 66.4 years.

Women in Tana River County had the lowest life expectancy in 2019 and are expected to live 58.6 years. Men in Tana River have a life expectancy of 56.2 years.

In 2019, men in Homa Bay County had the lowest life expectancy, at 50.5 years, while women's life expectancy was 60.2 years.

The map below shows counties whose women had a life expectancy of 65 years and above in 2019. They include: Nyeri (75.8), Kiambu (72.8), Laikipia (71.9), Uasin Gishu (71.7), Mombasa (71.1), Kirinyaga (71.1), Nandi (70.4), Tharaka Nithi (70.3), Embu (70.1), Taita Taveta (69.2), Nakuru (69.1), Baringo (68.9), Lamu (68.9), Kitui (68.8), Bungoma (68.2), Meru (68.2), Trans Nzoia (67.9), Samburu (67.4), Kisii (66.9), Busia (66.2), Nyamira (66.2), Kakamega (66.1), Nairobi (65.2).

Counties with the lowest life expectancy in women were Tana River (58.6), Kilifi (59.2), Isiolo (59.6), Turkana (60), Homa Bay (60.2), Mandera (60.5), Garissa (60.5), Migori (60.6), Kwale (60.7), West Pokot (61.1), Siaya (61.6), Narok (61.9). Wajir (62), Vihiga (62.1), Makueni (62.4), Elgeyo Marakwet (62.5), Marsabit (62.6), Kericho (62.9), Kisumu (63.1), Nyandarua (63.2), Kajiado (63.5), Bomet (63.6), Machakos (63.9), and Murang'a (58.1).

In men, counties with the highest life expectancy in 2019 were: Nyeri (66.4), Mombasa (65.7), Bungoma (65.5), Baringo (65.4), Trans Nzoia (64.4), Lamu (64.1), Tharaka Nithi (63.8), Uasin Gishu (63.6), Kakamega (63.4), Nairobi (62.6), Busia (62.3), Meru (62.2), Taita Taveta (61.2), Kiambu (60.8), Isiolo (60.1), and Nandi (60).

Life expectancies were lowest among men in the following counties: Homa Bay (50.5), Migori (50.5), Siaya (53.4), Kisumu (54), Nyamira (55.3), Turkana (55.9), Kisii (56.1), Tana River (56.2), Wajir (56.7), Kitui (56.7), Mandera (57.3), Garissa (57.4), West Pokot (57.6), Kilifi (57.8), Narok (57.8), Kajiado (57.8), Elgeyo Marakwet (57.9), Marsabit (57.9), Machakos (57.9), and Nyandarua (58).

The sex gap in life expectancy is significantly higher in some counties than others.

The life expectancy sex gap is the difference between female and male life expectancy. Looking at Kenyan counties, we find that the average sex gap in life expectancy was 6.3 years, higher than the sex gap projected by the UN in that year.

Ten counties had a life expectancy sex gap above ten years. The first was Laikipia, where women live on average 12.7 years more than men. The second was Kitui, where women live 12.1 years more than men. In Kiambu County, women live 12 years more than men.

Others were Embu at 11.4, Kirinyaga 11.2, Nyamira 10.9, Kisii 10.8, Nakuru 10.8, Nandi 10.4, and Migori 10.1.

In Isiolo, men have a longer life expectancy than women by half a year.

The counties with the lowest sex gap in life expectancy were Kilifi, at 1.4 years; Vihiga, at 2.3; Tana River, at 2.4; Kwale, at 2.5; Nairobi, at 2.6; Kakamega, at 2.7, Bungoma, at 2.7, Garissa, at 3.1, and Mandera, at 3.2.

See Also

1. The population of Kenya 2024 – 2100. 
2. Age-sex structure in Kenya: Number of men and women by age 
3. Number of deaths in Kenya per year 

References