Kenya Median Age in Years - Stats Kenya

The median age is the age that divides the population into two equal parts such that there are as many people with ages above it as there are people with ages below it.^[1]

According to the UN World Population Prospects, Kenya's median age was 19.5 years in 2023, meaning half the Kenyan population was younger than 19.5, and the other half was older than 19.5.^[2]

The map below shows the median age across the world.

The map shows that countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have lower median ages than those in other parts of the world.

In East Africa, Uganda's median age is 16.5, Tanzania 17.2, South Sudan 18.7, Ethiopia 18.7, Rwanda 19.4, Burundi 15.9, and Somalia 15.4. 

Kenya has the highest median age in Eastern Africa at 19.5 years.

What does the median age say about the Kenyan population

The median age tells us whether a population is young or old. Kenya's median age of 19.5 suggests half our population comprises teenagers and children. 

We can validate this by looking at census data, which found that 23.8 million people in Kenya were children aged 0 – 19. 

The number of children aged 0 – 4 was 5,993,267. The next age group, 5 – 9, had 6,202,643 children, and the 10 – 14 age group had 6,346,072 children. The 15 – 19 age group had 5,285,857 children.^[3]

The chart below shows Kenya's age structure. It bulges at the bottom, indicating more children than adults. 

Kenya has a high child dependency ratio.

The child dependency ratio highlights the level of burden that children aged 0 – 14 have on the working-age population (age 15 – 64).

Ideally, since these children do not work and are still in school, parents and governments have to cater to all their needs.

In 2019, Kenya had a child dependency ratio of 68.3%, meaning for every 100 working-age individuals, there were around 68 children.^[4]

A high child dependency ratio creates a huge demand for education since many children are of school-going age. In Kenya, evidence of this trend is seen in budgetary reports, whereby education takes up a large share of the budget.

For instance, in the financial year 2023/2024, the Controller of Budget reports that the Teacher Service Commission was the government department spending the most on recurrent expenditure, taking up Ksh. 342.38 billion.

The third spending government department was the State Department for Higher Education and Research, spending Ksh 148.82 billion. It was followed by the State Department for Basic Education, spending Ksh 124.62 billion. Three out of the four highest-spending MDAs on recurrent expenditures were in education.^[5]  

Additionally, a high child dependency means governments have to spend more on child-related healthcare, including vaccinations, treatment for childhood illnesses, and other routine checkups.

Kenya has a low old-age dependency ratio.

Since half of the Kenyan population is below the age of 19.5 years, the remaining half is above that age. However, the age structure shows that the pyramid narrows at the very top, suggesting that there are very few old people in Kenya. 

The old-age dependency ratio is the number of individuals aged 64 years and above for every 100 individuals of working age (15 – 64).

Recent estimates suggest that there were 1,609,222 people 65 years and older in Kenya. Based on the 2019 census, the old-age dependency ratio was 7%, with seven elderly people for every 100 working-age people. 

A low old-age dependency ratio means Kenya is not facing any of the issues faced by countries with higher median ages. For instance, by having a relatively young population, we continue to have significantly higher fertility rates. However, countries with a higher number of old people face difficulties with declining fertility rates and fewer children. As a result, these countries have old populations that may not have enough working-age people to care for them.

Take, for instance, a country like Japan with a median age of 49. Half the country's population is older than fifty, and despite having one of the highest life expectancies in the world, Japan is struggling to replace its aging population with more children.

Is there a Kenyan demographic transition to a higher median age?

A median age of 19.5 years does not mean it will remain that way forever. Recent data suggests Kenya may be experiencing a demographic transition, from higher fertility rates to low and from many births to few.

The chart below shows that the number of children aged 0 – 4 has stopped growing in the last decade and a half. The same is true of the next group, aged 5 – 14.

In contrast, the next two age groups are experiencing more growth, with the highest change among those aged 25 – 64. This means the Kenyan population is moving towards a time when there will be more youths than teenagers and children.

As we make this transition, the pressure on education declines, but the pressure to create jobs and other opportunities increases.

Census projections support this notion, with Kenya's labor force projected to increase by 40.7% from 28.8 million in 2020 to 40.5 million in 2035, an increase of 11.7 million people within 15 years.^[6]

The chart below shows the trend in median age from 1950 to 2100, with projections based on the UN medium scenario. It shows the transition to a more youthful population will happen within the next decade.

It also shows that the median age in Kenya was lowest in the 1970s, at 13 years. Our median age will reach 20 in 2025 and 23 by 2036. 

By 2100, Kenya's median age will reach 37.5, the same as the United States' current median age of 38.

The median age varies by county, with Central Kenya being older than other regions.

Using age structure data from the 2019 census, we calculated the median age in Kenya by county. We found that some counties were significantly older than others, corresponding to a higher median age.

Nyeri County and Kirinyaga had the highest median age of 26, followed by Murang’a with a median age of 24, Mombasa with a median age of 23, Embu with a median age of 23, Kiambu with a median age of 23, and Nairobi with a median age of 23. 

The map below shows the median age in Kenya by county

Here’s a comprehensive list of the median age in Kenya by county

1. Mombasa     23
2. Kwale 15
3. Kilifi    17
4. Tana River    14
5. Lamu  19
6. Taita Taveta  22
7. Garissa         15
8. Wajir   13
9. Mandera       12
10. Marsabit       14
11. Isiolo  15
12. Meru  21
13. Tharaka-Nithi 22
14. Embu 23
15. Kitui    17
16. Machakos     22
17. Makueni        20
18. Nyandarua    20
19. Nyeri  26
20. Kirinyaga      26
21. Murang'a      24
22. Kiambu         23
23. Turkana        15
24. West Pokot   13
25. Samburu       14
26. Trans Nzoia  16
27. Uasin Gishu  19
28. Elgeyo-Marakwet    17
29. Nandi  18
30. Baringo         16
31. Laikipia         19
32. Nakuru         19
33. Narok 14
34. Kajiado         20
35. Kericho         18
36. Bomet 17
37. Kakamega    16
38. Vihiga 18
39. Bungoma      15
40. Busia  16
41. Siaya  17
42. Kisumu         18
43. Homa Bay     15
44. Migori 15
45. Kisii    17
46. Nyamira        18
47. Nairobi          23

See Also

1. Age Structure in Kenya: Number of People by Age and Sex
2. Number of deaths in Kenya per year
3. Number of children per woman in Kenya: Fertility rates by county
4. Life expectancy at birth by county and gender
5. Median age at first marriage by county
6. Wealth and economic wellbeing in Kenya
7. Recent and lifetime migration in Kenya by County

References